Over the years, market analysts have held that Bitcoin price trends are tied to its four-year halving cycles. However, some analysts, including on-chain analyst Willy Woo, have suggested that the Bitcoin market has outgrown the trend.
No more 4-year cycles, says Willy Woo
Last October, Woo postulated a Bitcoin market thesis he calls “The Last Cycle” to explain his suspicion that Bitcoin will no longer have a clearly defined top. This thesis simply holds that where Bitcoin’s price used to be predictable as it was governed by demand and supply in the four-year cycles, the current market no longer tows that path.
The current market is now an “unpredictable walk” that has far more superior influences including demand and supply from a complex ecosystem. For Woo, the Last Cycle will be in place until Bitcoin adoption reaches saturation.
Recently, the analyst has been pointing out indicators that support the theory. In a tweet, he stated that the first signs of the thesis are already playing out. He notes that the market has not followed the normal four-year cycle thesis of one a one-year bull, one-year bear market, and two years of recovery lately.
He cites the fact that there have been three relatively short bull and bear markets since the 2019 bear crash to support his observation.
We're likely seeing the first signs of "The Last Cycle" thesis playing out. 3 relatively short bull and bear markets have transpired since the 2019 bottom already.
i.e. No more 4 year cycles. https://t.co/N3VzlKx2IA
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) March 20, 2022
This is coming after he pointed to the trend of Bitcoin accumulation to support the thesis also. In another tweet, he said that in the past strong capitulation ended each four-year cycle, but these days capitulations have been markedly smaller and more frequent.
His view is shared by other market observers as well. Philip Swift, the creator of the crypto data aggregator platform LookIntoBitcoin, mentioned that in his opinion four year cycles have been gone for a while. For Swift, Bitcoin is poised for a new growth phase that will be preceded by one more cycle of its adoption phases.
2/ The Golden Ratio Multiplier suggests the final adoption phase cycle will top out when price tags the x2 multiple (red line). pic.twitter.com/ylOM2fn6wi
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) March 20, 2022
The future price of Bitcoin
The break out from the four-year cycle is strongly hinged on the global adoption of Bitcoin, and there is no lack of evidence that this is already taking place. Nation-states like Brazil and Mexico have been talking about giving the pioneer cryptocurrency legal tender status, spurred on by El Salvador.
Similarly more institutional investors have been deploying funds into the market both covertly and overtly. This is according to recent on-chain data that points out that in recent months, the majority of Bitcoin transactions have been from institutional level whales.
Analysts including Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Digital, have predicted that adoption is what will drive the price of Bitcoin to $500,000 in coming years. On the day, Bitcoin is trading at $42,427, up 3.4% in last 24 hrs.
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